I'm not a political pundit. I'm an investment manager. Don't
take what I say here as anything more than one man's view. As always, I
welcome comments and criticism.
Let's get a few things
straight. First, I'm not a supporter of Donald Trump. Second, I'm
still eating a piece of humble pie after my post earlier this year when I
said I didn't think he would win the nomination. Third, I continue to
believe that even if he really gets the nomination, he won't win the
general election.
Let's leave the general election to one side.
There is about a six week window between now and the Republican
convention. A lot can happen now and then. Even so, I'll stick my neck
out a bit further and say here that much can go wrong for Mr. Trump when
delegates assemble in late July. Here's what to look for.
A Chorus of Un-Endorsements
Senator
Mark Kirk, a Republican from Illinois, was one of the first, if not the
first, to step forward and say that after reconsidering his view, he's
come to the conclusion that Mr. Trump is unfit to be President. Take
that in context, however. Mr. Kirk is from a state that tends to vote
for Democrats. He holds the Senate seat that was vacated by Barrack
Obama.
Still, Mr. Kirk is not alone. More than a dozen Senate
Republican's have been critical of Mr. Trump especially after last
week. Mr. Trump came under heavy fire after criticising a Federal Court
judge on the basis of the judge's Mexican heritage.
While we're
on the subject of judges, let's get one thing straight. Judges don't
just make up rules arbitrarily. They don't run cases on whim or by the
seat of their pants. Being a judge is serious business. I know this
because I come from a family of lawyers and because the course of an
international career has introduced me to legal systems not only the US
but in several European countries.
In any functioning democratic
system Judges are guided by a set of clearly written rules and legal
precedents. Judges write lengthy comments that cite the legal reasoning
behind their opinions. Potentially any ruling they make can be
questioned an appealed in a higher court. Mr. Trump's comment about the
judge serves only to show how little respect Mr. Trump has for the
judicial system and the intellect and professional quality it takes to
become a judge, especially a federal court judge. That alone makes me
wonder how good a job Mr. Trump will do when it comes to interviewing
and selecting future Federal Court judges.
Senator Kirk is hardly
alone in retreating from his pledge to support Mr. Trump if he
eventually wins the nomination. In the wake of Mr. Trump's criticism of
the judge, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said
"This is the most un-American thing from a politician since Joe
McCarthy. If anybody was looking for an off-ramp, this is probably it.
There’ll come a time when the love of country will trump hatred of
Hillary.”
Politicians Running for Cover
In
presidential elections the "coat-tail" effect is often talked about.
The coat-tail refers to the tendency of voters to vote for an entire
slate of candidates, including the presidential candidate and all those
in the same party. When a candidate has long coat tails the slate of
candidates tends to do well.
Judging by the number of Republicans
either speaking out against Mr. Trump or distancing themselves from him
there is evidently a strong feeling among Republican that Mr. Trump will
have difficulty at the ballot box. Particularly those Republicans who
are at risk of losing in the general election want to avoid the
possibility that Mr. Trump will be a liability rather than an asset.
The Labyrinth of Convention Rules
A
few days before the Republican convention starts 112 delegates will
gather to determine the final rules for how the convention will
operate. Literally, they set the rules of the game. The rules must
then be approved by the full convention before the nominating process
can begin.
Donald Trump's first problem actually began long before
he even declared himself a candidate. The delegates to the convention
are largely composed of party leaders, many of whom worked tirelessly
for other candidates. These delegates are bound to support Mr. Trump on
the first round of balloting, but they aren't bound to select a package
of rules that will not allow at least a challenge to the first round of
balloting.
Mr. Trump's second problem began when he started
winning primaries with his populist rhetoric and divisive language he
created plenty of enemies within his own party. He may have won the
popular votes, but he is far from popular within the party. Many senior
and influential Republicans have said they would not attend the
convention. That might be their publicly stated stance, but that
doesn't mean these people won't be working behind to scenes to set the
stage for a convention that does not finally approve Mr. Trump's
nomination.
So Where Do We Go From Here?
The
next few weeks will be critical for Mr. Trump. The party can be as
much his friend as it can be his undoing. Mr. Trump needs to mend
fences and adopt a tone and protocol that demonstrates he will not be a
liability in the general election. In short, he needs to lose his ego.
He needs to usher in an era of good will, make policy concessions and
adopt a tone and style that convinces the political establishment he can
be counted on and that he won't jeopardise their interests and their
candidacies in other elections.
Mr. Trump should think seriously
about having not just a slice of humble pie, but a meal full of humble
pie. If, in the coming weeks, if Mr. Trump rebrands, himself,
ingratiates himself, takes on a more politically acceptable tone, and
makes a bridges a serious set of policy differences he has a good chance
of sailing through even choppy waters at the convention.
If not,
he will most certainly face a serious challenge at the convention. Even
if he manages to overcome that challenge, the damage done would
probably ruin his chance to win the general election. The Republican
party line will read something like "Vote Republican even if you don't
vote for Trump."
For those of you who want to read more, here's a selection of articles I found interesting.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/some-republicans-discuss-anti-trump-convention-coup
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/24/11295380/republican-convention-rules-trump-delegates
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-05-09/republicans-opposed-to-trump-should-skip-the-gop-convention-in-cleveland
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html?_r=0
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/06/07/one-republicans-slowly-lining-opposition-donald-trump.html
http://www.wnd.com/2016/05/see-list-of-98-top-republicans-who-refuse-to-back-trump/
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/08/republican-party-unity-donald-trump-paul-ryan
Questions? Comments? Write to me at msonenshine@symfoniecapital.com
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